Assessing the capacity of the nation’s future physician workforce to meet expected demand provides critical information to both the public and the private sectors. The pace of change in health care coupled with the lead time required to train new physicians necessitates continuously updating and improving workforce projections. For these reasons, since 2015, the AAMC has commissioned annual reports of national physician workforce projections prepared by independent experts. The purpose of these updates is threefold: (1) Update and improve workforce projections: The AAMC is committed to supporting ongoing efforts to use the most recent and best-quality data to update projections and to respond to constructive feedback received about previous projections. (2) Present new analyses: The reports present new and updated research on the physician workforce and the implications of important issues such as the evolving health care system, the changing demographic composition of the workforce, and changing hours-worked and retirement patterns. A new section in this year’s report discusses the potential long-term implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for physician supply and demand. (3) Identify future directions for research: The process of modeling future supply and demand for physicians helps identify areas for future research, data collection, and analysis that will strengthen future projections and support decision-making to help align the nation’s physician workforce with its health care needs.
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