California is facing an imminent shortage of primary care clinicians. Demand for full-time equivalent primary care clinicians in California is projected to increase substantially between 2016 and 2030 due to growth and aging of the population and changes in the volume and intensity of the use of health care services. Although there has been rapid growth in the nurse practitioner (NP) and physician assistant (PA) workforces, their numbers are small relative to the number of physicians, and many NPs and PAs do not practice in primary care settings. In addition, the distribution of primary care clinicians across regions of the state is uneven, and Latinos, African Americans and Native Americans are underrepresented among them. These findings raise questions about whether California could do more to increase the size of the primary care workforce and improve geographic distribution and racial and ethnic diversity. This report presents a conceptual framework for classifying primary care workforce development initiatives that have been implemented by California, other states and the federal government. The framework was derived from a review of literature on primary care workforce development and interviews with experts in health workforce research and policy. It consists of four components: (1) enhance the primary care education pipeline, (2) improve recruitment and retention of primary care clinicians, (3) maximize the existing primary care workforce and (4) leverage data to inform primary care workforce strategies. Examples of specific strategies for implementing each component of the framework are provided, along with questions policymakers should ask when considering implementing these strategies. This report is the third in a series of reports from Healthforce Center at the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF). The first, California's Primary Care Workforce: Current Supply, Characteristics, and Pipeline of Trainees, presented the most current information on the supply, distribution and characteristics of allopathic physicians (MDs), osteopathic physicians (DOs), NPs and PAs who provide primary care in California. The second, California's Primary Care Workforce: Forecasted Supply, Demand, and Pipeline of Trainees, 2016-2030, described findings from forecasts of future supply and demand for primary care clinicians.
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